One day eventually we will have general human equivalent AI, at least for the vast majority of work tasks. Sure, but that's as much a premise for a science fiction story as a prediction about the future.
We are absolutely nowhere near even close to beginning to know how to even start building such a thing. Chat bots, language models and image generators are fun tools that look amazing to people who don't understand how they work, but they're extremely rudimentary compared to real intelligence.
I'll make a counter-prediction. All the low hanging fruit in language model development have been picked. Like all technologies there's a steep part of the S-curve of development and that's where we are now, but you can't extrapolate that to infinity. We'll soon hit the top of the curve and it will level off, and the inherent limitations of these systems will become a severe obstacle to further major advances. They will become powerful, useful tools that may even be transformative in some activities, but they won't turn out to be a significant step towards general AI. An important step maybe, but not a tipping point.
We are absolutely nowhere near even close to beginning to know how to even start building such a thing. Chat bots, language models and image generators are fun tools that look amazing to people who don't understand how they work, but they're extremely rudimentary compared to real intelligence.
I'll make a counter-prediction. All the low hanging fruit in language model development have been picked. Like all technologies there's a steep part of the S-curve of development and that's where we are now, but you can't extrapolate that to infinity. We'll soon hit the top of the curve and it will level off, and the inherent limitations of these systems will become a severe obstacle to further major advances. They will become powerful, useful tools that may even be transformative in some activities, but they won't turn out to be a significant step towards general AI. An important step maybe, but not a tipping point.