Damn.. even though we were both on the same reverse-engineering/cracking scene back in the '90s, but I can't immediately recall his scene nickname -- his full name has immediately slammed me back. Were we all the same gang - whether from .ua or from .ru, hanging on IRCs, chatting in English and Russian (almost nobody spoke Ukrainian online back then), although Dennis was from a Russian-speaking part of UA.. I see his blog is still predominantly in Russian (with ENG translation), it is so damn pathetic that Ukrainians are being suppressed into ukrainization and fighting for a cause many do not side with - four oblasts which Russia demands should be given to them to stop the war. It's unpopular opinion, but people in Ukraine do not want to die and fight for being "pro-Europe". It is simply not worth it. As a Ukrainian who emigrated decades ago, I am asking everyone to push Zelenskiy towards being more accommodating to Russian demands, give them their f*cking four oblasts and the Crimea, but stop the war! It can't be won.
I'd like to hope that Dennis could get away from serving or use his tech skills in drone teams or whatever.. but how many other talented people are being taken to the front lines against their own will and against their cause?! :(
If everybody followed your line of reasoning, not only Ukraine but half of Europe would be Russian already. Remember Putin's initial demand before the invasion was a full reset to the 90s. It was only because of Ukraine's dramatic fight that he scaled his demands temporarily.
Also, this logic doesn't work, because if it worked, he should already be satisfied by the annexation of Crimea in 2014. But he didn't, and this "success" made him even more hungry. It took time for everyone to understand this.
I don't buy this nonsense about Putin having ambitions beyond Right-Bank Ukraine. Putin didn't expect such resistance, and he understands now that Ukraine won't allow itself to become entirely Russian. Western Ukraine is not a match for Russia ideologically or historically, and since the war began, Central Ukraine has become much more radical in its stance toward everything Russian. He now realizes that Eastern Ukraine is the only area where Russia can be tolerated , if ceded to Russia.
And please -- anyone who talks about European ambitions is either naive or deliberately spreading propaganda.
> I don't buy this nonsense about Putin having ambitions beyond Right-Bank Ukraine.
It would be wonderful if it was true. Unfortunately the facts are different: he started a full-scale invasion planning to capture Kiev first and take over all Ukraine. He explained it very clearly here:
In short, in his opinion Ukraine is not a real country and shouldn't exist, and he doesn't want to "leave this problem to future generations". Which is his typical language because already assumes that well-developed Ukraine is a threat to Russia, and that future generations will share his view on this.
And what would be with the people who live in those regions? Who would house them, if they decide to move to Ukrainian controlled territory? What would be with the people who would be persecuted by Russians?
What do you know about what people in Ukraine want? Who gave you the right to speak from Ukrainians position?
You don’t live in Ukraine, you are not a Ukrainian, you are just “from Ukraine”.
The regions are largely already occupied. Are you aware of how many refugees have already left for Ukraine? They are not coming back to those territories unless they are liberated. A lot of pro-Russian refugees left for Russia. Any non-conscripts left for Europe.
I know what my relatives in Ukraine want -- they want to stop the war without it progressing further and without the conscription of 18 year olds. Zelenskiy should have held a referendum on Crimea years ago -- he promised it before getting elected. They purposely want to avoid this because most Ukrainians would vote to cede Crimea to end the war. This could have been used as a strong negotiating chip with Russia. Ukraine could have negotiated the return of some of the already occupied territories in exchange for accepting the loss of Crimea. But it's not happening! And nobody is allowed to talk about this -- not even hint at it! I ask my numerous Ukrainian contacts privately, and they all agree: cede Crimea, at least to end the war.
It is quite obvious that Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition, and the longer this drags on, the more devastated Ukraine will be when the war ends. The amount of damage to the economy, infrastructure, agriculture, housing, etc., is already beyond recovery. Have you seen how much the World Bank expects Ukraine will need to rebuild? More than half a trillion USD -- that's today's figure.
So yeah, you can continue the demagoguery about "who gave you the right" or "what if, what then" -- but Ukraine needs concrete steps and the acceptance that it will have to lose something in order to secure its further independence and, hopefully, future prosperity.
PS: But if you think losing millions of lives, losing bright minds who don't want to have to do anything with this war, is more important than ceding some pro-russian oblasts - go on the frontlines and fight for this flawed ideology.
PPS: I checked your posting history on HN and you seem to have joined 3 months ago to support Ukrainian-government's official narrative. I would have saved my time responding to you, should I checked it earlier.
The regions are already largely occupied by —- that is not true. Zaporizhzha and Kherson cities where most population lives are under Ukrainian control. There is a significant population in Kramatorsk-Slavyansk.
Second, Russia demands ceding all of Zaporizhzha, Kherson and Donetsk region to Russian control. Ukraine already agreed to unconditional ceasefire, Russia wants 3 regions with millions of people.
Any non-conscripts left to Europe - that is not true, there are many kids, elderly and women in Ukraine, including the South and the East.
Referendum for status of Crimea was never on Zelensky ballot.
« – Крим повернеться лише тоді, коли у Росії зміниться влада. Іншого виходу у мене немає, – наголосив Зеленський.» nothing about ceding anything.
Nor it was sole Russian demand at any point. So that’s a nice rhetorical device here, but ceding or not ceding Crimea has no relation to the war’s end
About whether Ukraine can or cannot win the war, I don’t have a magical crystal ball and neither do you. Soviet Union lost to Finland, Russia to Chechen insurgents, the disparity was much bigger.
In reality, Ukraine gave away Crimea in 2014 “to prevent war”, it worked out nicely, yeah?
Another point, Kherson and Zaporizhzha consistently, even before 2022, voted for pro-EU parties, in two parliamentary and two presidential elections.
What is also interesting, is that in your messages there was not a single mention of Russia’s responsibility for the war. It is treated like some sort of a tornado. Zelensky this, Zelensky that. Doesn’t Russia have some sort of agency, no? Isn’t it a bit conspicuous for a Ukrainian, no?
About losing something to gain something, Ukraine already lost a lot in 2014-2015, yet that did not lead to any gains. There is no equilibrium here.
Pps: I think your time is not of the utmost value.
Its pure Danegeld, you give bully one finger he cuts off your arm. putin himself is quite clear about goal being going back to at least pre 1989 borders.
If Ukraine would agree to what you were manipulated into believing Dennis Yurichev would be drafted into russian army and forced to storm Lithuania.
Ukraine - as how it wants to exist in the present: West-oriented and with Ukrainian-speaking population - can exist without these parts Russia demands. Those parts were Russia oriented in the first place. There is no reason to forcefully conscript those unwilling to fight and send them to die for no reason. This war shouldn't be lasting that long. "Threat to it's very existence" is a lie, Ukraine will be smaller, but it could have much stronger identity. The risk of losing more land to Russia is much higher than keeping pushing up this false ideology about "existence risk". Why there is still no referendum about Crimea, which Zelenskiy promised, if elected? He has drastically changed the course for some reason and many Ukrainians oppose this suicidal fighting for nothing. There is minerals deal already - time to stop and negotiate some better terms, instead of blank refusing them.
PS: I think I recalled Dennis' nickname.. Y0nkie :) dude, hope you will get out of this safe and sound. I know it's not your war, as neither it would have been mine, should I have stayed in Ukraine..
I don't think we have a totally verified number up to this day. It's definitely several thousands as Ukrainian army actively prevented civilians to leave the city, so significant number died under collapsed buildings.
Overall, according to UN "More than 12,654 civilian men, women, girls, and boys have been killed, and over 29,392 injured since 24 February 2022, as verified by HRMMU."
Do you happen to know whether there's any conscription in Moscow and/or St. Petersburg?
I mean, the Russians round up people from the periphery and send them off to help liberate Ukraine from the Ukrainians, but do you happen to know whether people from the core cities of the empire are conscripted?
Russian police are targeting migrants and draft-age men in a wave of raids on gyms and martial arts clubs across major cities, with activists describing them as part of a broader crackdown that intensified ahead of the country’s spring military draft. /-/ Similar raids have since been reported at other Spirit Fitness locations, as well as gyms in the cities of St. Petersburg, Irkutsk, Yekaterinburg and Krasnodar, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s regional desk Sever Realii. /-/ Lawyers in multiple regions told Sever Realii that gym raids now happen at least twice a month in major cities. Russian citizens are typically sent to enlistment offices, while foreign nationals are taken to temporary detention centers. Many are ultimately deported.
Man, stop reading and posting this propaganda bullshit. RFERL is a shithole on a USAID payroll.
Migrants can't even be conscripted as they're not Russia citizens. So, police raids against migrants are targeting illegal migration, have nothing to do with military service.
Radio Free Europe is a really solid outlet that has maintained a balanced and consistent coverage of Russia for many years, and this seems to piss off Russian trolls like nothing else. Thank you for adding a data point.
> Pissing off Russian citizens as the level of lies they keep producing for years is just unbelievable.
Radio Free Europe has maintained a strong focus on social issues, and that seems to piss off trolls the most. Stories about ordinary people and the social issues they face in everyday life are much more powerful than generic articles about politics. This story about gold mining destroying rivers is a good example: https://www.rferl.org/a/krasnoyarsk-siberia-polluted-rivers-...
Conscripts army exists in Russia for decades, it's a mandatory service unless you are not fit due to some illness or due to higher education exceptions. Russia conscripts from every region proportionally to a population about 160k people every half a year (1 year mandatory service). These people do not participate in Ukrainian war directly unless they're part of the border guard and Ukraine tries to breach it.
And there's a professional army, with contracts. That's who is fighting in Ukraine. Conscripts after their mandatory service is finished may sign or not sign a professional contract. MoD hires soldiers in every region, pays good salaries, but this salary is very lucrative for periphery regions, but not as attractive compared to some jobs in cities like Moscow or St.Petersburg. Yet, they increased bonuses for two capitals compared to other cities. So, overall, most soldiers are not from Msk or SPb, but every region has enough volunteers so far to not mobilize.
You conveniently forget the part where conscripts are coerced into signing up for the professional contract, or the signatures are falsified altogether without them even knowing.
Semyon* (name changed) was conscripted in Chelyabinsk, in the Urals, having served in the Pskov region of northwestern Russia for the first five months, where he was asked to sign a contract several times but refused. On 20 April, he was transferred to the Chebarkul garrison and signed up for professional service after just two and a half hours.
His mother says that on the way to the unit he complained of being actively pressured into signing a contract, after which Semyon was taken to a separate office, where a sergeant fired a gun next to him and showed him a video of dead and wounded people, threatening that the same thing would happen to him if he didn’t sign. Semyon broke under the pressure, his family says. On the same day, he applied to have the contract annulled, saying he had signed under duress, asking for it to be declared invalid as the commander had not yet signed it, but to no avail.
I'm not missing anything. I call a spade a spade. There have been many reports of people who didn't sign voluntarily, which is conscription even if the wording above the signature avoids the word. And as for the good pay, there've been many reports of people who weren't paid.
