Any public statement by Dario could get him sued by his investors if it’s misleading. He probably would t have an SEC suit for a private company but that company has filed for exemptions with the SEC. Intentionally misleading statements can generally be counted out in the US unless the person deserves a skeptical eye.
The numbers are right there in the announcement - that investment will come with a pref, likely 1x. So, can Anthropic make 17b with their current revenue growth and inference margin? That’s the only question an investor needs to feel comfortable on to participate in this round.
Realistically - imagine all training from now fails for the world and everyone just shifts to inference - Anthropic would need only clear like 3 or 4b a year in net income to be worth more than this round’s pref in a sale. Meanwhile that 17b will have been sent to workers and data center providers who will book it as revenue and margin.
The numbers are right there in the announcement - that investment will come with a pref, likely 1x. So, can Anthropic make 17b with their current revenue growth and inference margin? That’s the only question an investor needs to feel comfortable on to participate in this round.
Realistically - imagine all training from now fails for the world and everyone just shifts to inference - Anthropic would need only clear like 3 or 4b a year in net income to be worth more than this round’s pref in a sale. Meanwhile that 17b will have been sent to workers and data center providers who will book it as revenue and margin.